By Brooks Parola: PWP.
I'm not sure that Guiliani's admission that Trump paid Coen back the $130,000 is that big a deal. Yes, it's an admission that Trump lied, (yeah big deal, everyone knows he lies) yes, it's an admission that there was an affair, (big deal, everyone knows that).
But, the base will continue to support Trump, and this allows them to at least make the case, that the payment was more about keeping the affair quiet for personal reasons, not political ones, and therefore, no campaign finance violation.
Now clearly, others will be the final arbiters of whether the payment was a campaign finance violation or not. But, I think the Trump team strategy at this point, is to admit to the payment, (since everyone knows it happened) and focus not on arguing that he made the payment, but why he made it, to counter the campaign finance violation charge...I don't think the admission hurts him politically. Continuing to deny it, could hurt him more legally